If all goes according to plan this week, Senate Republican leaders will advance a budget resolution that sets the stage for a follow-on reconciliation bill that provides about $75 billion for Immigration Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). That assumes GOP leaders can stave off demands for extraneous policy proposals to get this second reconciliation bill to the president by his requested June 1 deadline. Depending on how you look at it, success on this front either diminishes the possibility of a third reconciliation bill or adds to the pressure for action on it.

Skeptics like Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) argue there's only one realistic second shot at reconciliation and that leadership should include other Republican proposals ahead of the midterm elections, including supplemental defense funding, components of the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, and proposals to address affordability concerns. "This is the only train leaving the station if we want to do something big and bold before the midterm elections," he says. Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) also noted some frustration building among his colleagues who want a bigger bill.

A so-called "skinny" reconciliation bill focused exclusively on funding ICE and CBP would leave these other major Republican policy priorities undone, which may drive future action. Senate Committee on the Budget Chairman Lindsey Graham (R-SC) says he wants to advance a third reconciliation bill to fund defense if Congress cannot advance a supplemental military spending bill. A third bill could also include "ideally, some tax items," says House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA), "but nothing's been agreed to." 

House Committee on Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-MO) wants tax policy included. "If you're going to pass a reconciliation bill," he says, "it needs to be one that addresses the concerns of the American people, and affordability is the concern I hear more than anything." 

Timing is another big factor given the reduced legislative calendar, with House Republicans expected to be back home campaigning for the midterms. Counting and herding votes could be tougher than usual for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), who needs almost every GOP vote to win on even the most routine legislative roll calls.

If a pre-election third reconciliation bill doesn't materialize, a lame duck session of Congress will return to wrap up work for the year, which could include tax policy. A year-end bipartisan tax bill could include Internal Revenue Service (IRS) administrative reforms, U.S.-Taiwan tax agreement, retirement saving reforms, and other issues, such as retroactively extending the now-expired Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC) and new tax rules for digital assets.

If Republicans lose control of the House in November, it could be a driver to quickly assemble a third reconciliation bill with GOP priorities before divided government takes hold, although they may face significant attendance issues that will make such an effort challenging. #TaxTake

Upcoming Speaking Engagements 

Layla, Rocco, George Hani, Lisandra Ortiz, and Jeff Tebbs will speak at the American Petroleum Institute (API) Federal Tax Forum on April 21-22.

Marc will speak at the American Staffing Association (ASA) Staffing Law and Compliance conference on May 8.

Mike, Jim Gadwood, Sam Lapin, Katherine Chace, and Tyler Jackson will speak at the American Bar Association's (ABA) 2026 May Tax Meeting on May 7-9.

Rocco will speak at the Tax Council Policy Institute (TCPI) symposium Tax Matters: Federal, State, and Global Taxes in Turbulent Times on May 14.

Marc, Sam Lapin, and Lisandra Ortiz will speak at the Federal Bar Association (FBA) Insurance Tax Seminar on May 28-29. 

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