The Senate budget reconciliation bill (H.R. 1) is on track to break the finish-line tape with a vote on final passage today. The die was cast late Saturday with a close vote to start debate on the bill. The 51-49 vote on the motion to proceed put a majority on record to support the final version, telegraphing what should be a crowning achievement for President Trump. As of press time, we are awaiting the results of the vote-a-rama and a likely manager's "wraparound" amendment to make final changes to the Senate bill before a final Senate vote.  After that, the House still must give its final blessing this week to meet the president's plan for a holiday bill signing.

Look for Trump and GOP congressional leaders to turn up the heat on any waffling Republicans in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can afford to lose no more than three Republicans. With little hope for recalcitrant Republicans to reopen the bill, the pressure could get intense. Leaders may convince or entice support from any holdouts by promising future legislative action on a pet issue. And the president is not averse to intimating political reprisals to shore up support. In the end, the customary 15-minute House floor vote could stretch into an hours-long affair.

At press time, the following legislative materials were available. There will be updates and revisions reflecting changes to the bill before Senate passage. #TaxTake

• Latest Senate version of H.R. 1 
• Estimated Revenue Effects Of A Manager's Amendment To The Tax Provisions To Provide Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget In The Senate Relative To Current Policy
• Estimated Revenue Effects Of A Manager's Amendment To The Tax Provisions To Provide Reconciliation Of The Fiscal Year 2025 Budget In The Senate Relative To Present Law 

In The News

Marc commented on the push to permanently extend key tax breaks from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) through H.R. 1 in CFO Dive. 

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